So what’s changed?
Since the 2020 June Medical Services decision, the Court tragically lost one of its liberal members (and one of its greatest Justices), Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Ginsburg was contentiously replaced in the lead-up to the 2020 election by Justice Amy Coney Barrett. That change has two major implications: it strengthens the Conservative wing of the Court to an effective 6–3 split. More importantly, it greatly reduces the influence of Chief Justice Roberts, who had begun to act as, if not a swing justice, then at least a moderate and pragmatic influence of the Court. Even if Roberts chooses to maintain his current position, there are five other conservative Justices who could, in theory, strike down Roe.
Where next?
The first thing to note is that this will not be resolved quickly. The case will likely not be heard until the end of the year at the earliest, and a ruling will probably not come before March/April in 2022. The Court will likely be inundated by amicus curiae submissions (made by interest groups, religious organisations, medical bodies, and so on), and will take its time to consider all the issues.
Predicting what the Court might do is a notoriously difficult task. The Justices can be unpredictable at the best of times, and they have a well-documented responsiveness to public opinion. And despite what the religious right and southern Republicans would have you believe, American public opinion actually trends towards support for Roe. There are also several different approaches the Court could take, from affirming Roe, to small changes around the margins, to a complete overrule. What is clear, however, is that American access to abortion is probably in the greatest danger it has seen since 1973.
America divided?
Whatever happens in Dobbs, it feels inevitable that this case will deepen the divides in American society that became particularly pronounced during Donald Trump’s presidency. The Court will be fully aware that any decision it makes could set alight weeks, months, or even years of social unrest.
An adverse decision would also fuel calls on the left for reform of the Supreme Court from many who feel the institution has fallen out of touch with modern society. President Joe Biden has already initiated an inquiry into the Court and the way it functions and we should expect to hear plenty more discussion as this case comes closer to resolution. Watch this space.
Hayden Thorne is a PhD candidate in the History programme at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, specialising in the United States Supreme Court.
Read the original article on Newsroom.