Judy Lawrence

Volunteer
Antarctic Research Centre

Adjunct Professor
School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences

• judy.lawrence@vuw.ac.nz

• qualifications
• biography
• publications
• research interests
• engagement
• teaching

View Judy Lawrence's ORCID

Qualifications

• PhD, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
• MA, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
• BA(Hons), Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand

Biography

Judy’s research focuses on the interface between science and practice on climate change adaptation, sea-level rise, coastal hazards, river and water management, risk management, land use management and soil conservation. Judy is an active member of the global decision-making under deep uncertainty network and has developed an active practice community in NZ using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP). Judy's research and practice is with a range of regional and district councils, water agencies, central government agencies and postgraduate students.

Her research has wide impact on uptake of adaptive practices, use of economic, adaptive pathways assessment and planning tools. This research is at the leading edge of practice and is contributing to the international literature and to networks in The Netherlands, Great Britian, USA, and practitioner networks like the Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty, the Practitioner Exchange for Effective Response to Sea Level Rise (PEERS). Her work on the development and application of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways planning in river and coastal settings is now embedded in the NZ national Coastal Hazards and Climate Change guidance.

Judy was Co-Author of the MfE Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance (2017 and 2024). Co-Chair of the Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (2018), Governance Domain Lead for the first NZ National Climate Change Risk Assessment (2020), Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group II Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Chapter 11 Australasia (2022). She was a  recipient of the Prime Minister’s Science Prize 2019 Melting Ice and Rising Seas Team 2019. She has a PhD in Public Policy (Dean's Award) on the adequacy of institutional frameworks and practice for climate change adaptation, and has a Masters degree in Geomorphology. Judy is a New Zealand  Climate Change Commissioner.

Publications

Cundill G, Harvey B., Ley D, Singh C, Huson B, Aldunce P, Biesbroek R, Lawrence J, Morchain D, Nalau J, Simpson N.P, Totin, E. 2024.  Engaging diverse knowledge holders in adaptation research. Nature Climate Change 14 6622-664 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02056-5

Lempert R, Lawrence J, Kopp R, Haasnoot M, Reisinger A, Grubb M, Pasqualino R. 2024. The use of decision making under deep uncertainty in the IPCC. Frontiers in Climate V6 2024. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1380054

Naish T, Levy R, Hamling I, Hreinsdóttir S, Kumar P, Garner G. G… Lawrence J. et al (2024). The significance of interseismic vertical land movement at convergent plate boundaries in probabilistic sea‐level projections for AR6 scenarios: The New Zealand case. Earth's Future, 12, e2023EF004165. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004165

Lawrence, J. and Allison, A. 2024 Guidance on adaptive infrastructure decision-making for addressing compound climate change impacts, Deep South National Science Challenge, Wellington, NZ. https://deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Guidance-on-adaptive-decision-making-for-addressing-compound-climate-change-impacts-for-infrastructure.pdf

Allison AEF, Lawrence JH, Stephens SA, Kwakkel JH, Singh SK, Blackett P and Stroombergen A (2024) Planning for wastewater infrastructure adaptation under deep uncertainty. Front. Clim. 6:1355446. doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1355446

Levy R.; Naish, T.; Lowry, D.; Priestley, R.; Winefield, R.; Alevropolous-Borrill, A.; Beck, E.; Bell, R.G.; Blick, G.; Dadic, R.; Gillies, T.; Golledge, N.; Heine, Z.; Jendersie, S.; Lawrence, J.; O’Leary, K.; Paulik, R.; Roberts, C.; Taitoko, M.; Trayling, N. (2023). Melting ice and rising seas – connecting projected change in Antarctica’s ice sheets to communities in Aotearoa New Zealand. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand. https://doi.org/10.1080/03036758.2023.2232743

Williams G, J. Reed, R. Menke & E. Benn  J. Lawrence, S. K. Singh , G. Darch & A. Allan.(2023) Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning for a water resources investment strategy. Paper prepared for Water NZ Conference 17-19 October 2023. https://www.waternz.org.nz/Article?Action=View&Article_id=2619

Lawrence, J., Wreford, A., Blackett, P. et al 2023 Climate Adaptation through an integrative lens in Aotearoa New Zealand. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Special Issue on Climate Change  https://doi.org/10.1080/03036758.2023.2236033

Allison, A., Stephens, A., Blackett, P., Lawrence, J., Dickson, M., Matthews, Y. 2023. Simulating the Impacts of an Applied Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Plan Using an Agent-Based Model: A Tauranga City, New Zealand, Case Study. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11, x. https://doi.org/10.3390/xxxxx

Lawrence, J.; Bell, R.G. (2022). The foundations of the sea-level rise challenge: Coasts are a special case for adaptation. In: Hendtlass, C.; FitzGerald, T.; Serrano, A.; Neale, D., Coastal Adaptation – Adapting to coastal change and hazard risk in Aotearoa New Zealand, p. 3–7, NZ Coastal Society, Special Publication 5, November 2022. https://www.coastalsociety.org.nz/media/view/publications/special-publication-5-coastal-adaptation/

Dickson M, Ford M, Ryan E, Tuck M, Sengupta M, Lawrence J. The use of historic and contemporary coastal-change data for adaptation decisions making, p55-59, NZ Coastal Society, Special Publication 5, November 2022.  https://www.coastalsociety.org.nz/media/view/publications/special-publication-5-coastal-adaptation/

Levy R, T. Naish, I. Hamling, G. Garner, S. Hreinsdottir, R. Kopp, N. Golledge, F. Colleoni, R. Bell, R. Paulik, J. Lawrence, P. Denys, T. Gillies (2024). The significance of vertical land movements at convergent plate boundaries in probabilistic sea-level projections for AR6 scenarios: The New Zealand case. Earth’s Future. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10511878.1

Stroombergen, A and Lawrence, J (2022) A novel illustration of real options analysis to address the problem of probabilities under deep uncertainty and changing climate risk. Climate Risk Management 38, 2022, 100458 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100458

Simpson Nicholas P., Portia Adade Williams, Katharine Mach, Lea Berrang-Ford, Robbert Biesbroek, Marjolijn Haasnoot , Alcade C. Segnon, Donovan Campbell, Justice Issah Musah-Surugu, Elphin Tom Joe, Abraham Marshall Nunbogu, Salma Sabour, Andreas L.S. Meyer, Talbot M Andrews, Chandni Singh, A.R. Siders, Judy Lawrence, Maarten van Aalst, Christopher H. Trisos. (2023). The Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative Team. Adaptation to compound climate risks: a systematic global stocktake iScience (Cell Press), Special Issue on Compounding effects as drivers of extreme events in socio-ecological systems.

Lawrence, J., B. Mackey, F. Chiew, M.J. Costello, K. Hennessy, N. Lansbury, U.B. Nidumolu, G. Pecl, L. Rickards, N. Tapper, A. Woodward, and A. Wreford, 2022: Australasia. In: Climate Change (2022): Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press.

Simpson, N.P, K.J. Mach, A. Constable, J. Hess, R. Hogarth, M. Howden, J. Lawrence, R.J. Lempert, V. Muccione, B. Mackey, M.G. New, B. O'Neill, F. Otto, H.-O. Pörtner, A. Reisinger, D. Roberts, D.N. Schmidt, S. Seneviratne, S. Strongin, M. van Aalst, E. Totin, C.H. Trisos (2021)A framework for complex climate change risk assessment. ONE-EARTH 4 (4) p 489-501 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.005

Lawrence J, Allan S, Clarke L. (2021) Inadequacy Revealed and the Transition to Adaptation as Risk Management in New Zealand. Front. Clim. 3:734726. doi: 10.3389/fclim.2021.734726

Ryan, E.J, Owen, S.D., Lawrence, J., Glavovic, B., Robichaux, L., Dickson, M., Kench, P.S., Schneider, P., Bell, R., Blackett, P. (2021) Formulating a 100-year strategy for managing coastal hazards in a changing climate: Lessons learned from Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand. Environmental Science and Policy https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.012

Lawrence, J, Stephens, S., Blackett., Bell, R., Priestley, R. (2021) Climate services transformed: Decision-making practice for the coast in a changing climate. Frontiers in Marine Science, Special Issue Climate Services for Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.703902

Lawrence, J., McCleave, G., & Hanna, C. (2021). Coastal adaptation and managed retreat. Build, 184(June / July), 54-56.

Haasnoot, M., Lawrence, J., Magnan, A.K. (2021). Pathways to coastal retreat. Science, 18 Jun 2021, Vol. 372, Issue 6548, pp. 1287-1290. DOI: 10.1126/science.abi6594

White, I., Lawrence, J. (2020) Continuity and change in national riskscapes: A New Zealand perspective on the challenges for climate governance theory and practice Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Volume 13, Issue 2, July 2020, Pages 215–231, https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsaa005

Lawrence, J., Haasnoot, M., Lempert, R. (2020) Climate: managing deep uncertainty. Nature Correspondence v. 580 23 April 2020 p 456.

Lawrence, J., Boston, J., Bell, R., Olufson, S., Kool, R., Hardcastle, M., Stroombergen, A. (2020). Implementing pre-emptive managed retreat: constraints and novel insights. Current Climate Change Reports (2020) DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00161-z

Lawrence, J., Blackett, P., Cradock-Henry, N, A. (2020) Cascading climate change impacts and implications. Climate Risk Management 29, 100234 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100234

Cradock-Henry NA, Connolly J, Blackett P, Lawrence J. (2020). Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications. MethodsX. 2020 Apr 19;7:100893. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2020.100893. PMID: 32368509; PMCID: PMC7184528.

Haasnoot, M., Beisbroek, R., Lawrence, J. et al. (2020) Defining the solution space to accelerate climate change adaptation. Reg Environ Change 20, 37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01623-8

Lawrence in Mechler, R. et al. ed. (2019) Loss and Damage from Climate Change. Concepts, Methods and Policy Options. Chapter 1 Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions. Chapter 12 Integrated Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation.  Springer Open Access, Cham, Switzerland.

Lawrence, J. The Adaptation Gap.(2019).  In Hall, D.(ed) The Careful Revolution Towards a Low- Emissions Future. BWB Texts, Wellington, New Zealand.

Nalau, J., Lawrence, J., Burton, D. (2019).The role of governance in sub-national adaptation policy. In Keskitalo, E, C, H., & Preston, B.L.(ed) Research handbook on climate change adaptation policy. Edward Elgar, UK, USA.

Lawrence J., Haasnoot, M., McKim, L., Atapattu, D., Campbell, G., Stroombergen, A. (2019). From theory to practice: a timeline of interventions by a change agent with the developers and users of Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). In Marchau, V., Walker, W., Bloeman, P. Decisionmaking under deep uncertainty: From theory to practice. https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030052515

Lawrence, J., Bell, R., Stroombergen, A. (2019) A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application. Sustainability Special Issue.  https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020406

Stephens, S., Bell, R., Lawrence J. (2018). Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise. Environmental Research Letters. Published on line 7 September 2018.  http://iopscience.iop.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aadf96

Boston J and Lawrence J. 2018 Funding Climate Change Adaptation: the case for a new policy framework. Policy Quarterly ,V14 (2).

Frame, B., Lawrence, J., Ausseil, A., Daigneault, A., Reisinger, A. (2018) Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios. Climate Risk Management (21) 39-51.

Kench, Paul, S. Emma J. Ryan, Susan Owen, Robert Bell, Judy Lawrence, Bruce Glavovic, Paula Blackett, Julia Becker, Paul Schneider, Michael Allis, Mark Dickson, and Hamish G. Rennie (2018).Source: Journal of Coastal Research, 85(sp1):1496-1500. https://doi.org/10.2112/SI85-300.1 URL: http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.2112/SI85-300.1

Owen, S., Lawrence, J., Ryan, E., Kench, P., Bell, R., Rennie, H., Blackett, P., Schneider, P. (2018) Anticipating staged managed retreat at the coastal margins. Planning Quarterly.

Van Buuren A, Lawrence J, Potter K, Warner J (2018). Introducing adaptive flood risk management in England, New Zealand, and the Netherlands: The impact of administrative traditions. Special issue of Review of Policy Research. ed. G Peters, R Biesbroek, J Tosun

Lawrence, J, Bell, R, Blackett, P, Stephens, S, Allan, S. (2018) National Guidance for Adapting to Coastal Hazards and Sea-level Rise: Anticipating when and how to change pathway. Environmental Science & Policy [online]

Stephens, S., Bell, R., Lawrence, J., (2017). Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation. Marine Sciences and Engineering 5, 20.

Lawrence, J. and Haasnoot, M. (2017). What it took to catalyse a transition towards adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty. Environmental Science and Policy. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.12.003

Lawrence, J. & Saunders, W. (2017). The planning nexus between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Chapter 39 in I. Kelman (ed) Handbook of Disaster Risk Reduction Including Climate Change Adaptation. Oxford, UK. Taylor Francis Books.

Reisinger A, Lawrence J, Hart G. et al (2015). From coping to resilience: the role of managed retreat in highly developed coastal regions. In B. Glavovic, R. Kaye, M. Kelly & A. Travers (Eds.), Climate Change and the Coast: Building Resilient Communities. London, UK: Taylor &Francis.

Lawrence J. Hutt River Flood Management. (2014). In T. Capela Lourenço, A. Rovisco, A. Groot, C. Nilsson, H.-M. Füssel, L. Van Bree, & R.B. Street (Eds.), Adapting to an Uncertain Climate: Lessons from Practice (pp.126-131). Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London: Springer.

Manning, M., Lawrence, J., King, D., Chapman, R. (2014). Dealing with changing risks: a New Zealand perspective on climate change adaptation. Regional Environmental Change DOI 10.1007/s10113-014-0673-1.

Evans, L., Milfont, T.L., Lawrence J. (2014). Considering Adaptation Increases Willingness to Mitigate. Global Environmental Change. [Available online 27 January 2014].

Lawrence, J. Quade, D., Becker, J. (2014) Effects of flood experience on risk perception and response: A paradigm shift for changing climate risk. Natural Hazards. DOI 10.1007/s11069-014-1288-z.

Lawrence, J., Sullivan, F., Lash, A., Ide, G., Cameron, C., & McGlinchey, L. (2013) Adapting to changing climate risk by local government in New Zealand: Institutional practice barriers and enablers. Journal of Local Environment. Vol 72. Advance online, DOI: 10.1080/13549839.2013.839643.

Lawrence, J., Wolf, A & Reisinger, A. (2013). Institutional transformation in a devolved governance system: Possibilities and Limits. In: Proceedings of the Transformation in a Changing Climate Conference, Oslo, Norway. pp. 62-72.

Lawrence, J., Reisinger, A., Mullan, B., & Jackson, B. (2013). Exploring climate change uncertainties to support adaptive management of changing flood risk. Environmental Science & Policy, 33,133–142.

Research interests