A major research project investigating whether Wellington and central New Zealand will face an increased risk of more large earthquakes following the next big shake has secured $12,670,372 in funding.

Associate Professor Jamie Howarth, from Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, said the project will explore the likelihood that a large earthquake could set the scene for decades of further massive shakes.

“Central Aotearoa sits in a zone of complex faulting, known as the ‘transition zone’ because it marks the transition between our two largest plate boundary faults—the Hikurangi Subduction Zone and the Alpine Fault.

“There’s a high likelihood—a 75 percent chance—of a magnitude 8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years. We think a shake of this size could significantly change the state of stress in the transition zone, potentially triggering decades of more large quakes,” he said.

As part of the project, researchers will investigate the pattern and frequency of previous large earthquake sequences, using lake sediment records that reveal earthquake activity up to 10,000 years in the past.

“This data will help inform computer simulations of earthquake processes, dramatically improving our ability to forecast future quake sequences and understand the hazard they present to people and communities,” he said.

Associate Professor Caroline Orchiston, from the University of Otago, is co-leading the research with Associate Professor Howarth.

“By giving us better information about the likelihood of future quakes, this project will reduce the uncertainty in hazard estimates and help inform decision making so we can minimise costs from these events, potentially saving billions of dollars,” she said.

The project will bring together researchers from both Victoria and Otago universities as well as GNS Science, the University of Canterbury, Massey University, NIWA, and consultancy Market Economics. It will also involve work with iwi and local communities on preparing for future major quakes.

The research will begin in October 2023 and run for five years.

Funding for the research is being provided through the 2023 Endeavour Fund, administered by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.

The University has also received $5 million from this year’s Endeavour Fund for five other projects:

• $1 m for research investigating the use of artificial intelligence in the development of new medicines, principal investigator Dr Binh Nguyen
• $1 m for research investigating ways to make use of the compounds found in fungi to produce antibiotics and other drugs, principal investigator Dr Daniel Berry
• $1 m for research on a new drug to prevent neurological damage from Krabbe disease, principal investigator Dr Farah Lamiable-Oulaidi
• $1 m for research investigating how to improve the transparency of artificial intelligence systems, principal investigator Associate Professor Paul Teal
• $1 m for research investigating the use of artificial intelligence to automate processes in emergency medical dispatch, principal investigator Associate Professor Yi Mei.