Jon Fraenkel interview: Bainimarama secures a second term in Fiji, but faces a stronger opposition
This interview was originally published on World Politics Review.
Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama of Fiji narrowly won a second term in an election last month that pitted two former coup leaders against each other. Bainimarama has ruled the Pacific island nation since taking power in a bloodless coup in 2006, but his FijiFirst party will now have to contend with stiffer resistance from the main opposition Social and Democratic Liberal Party, which strengthened its position in Parliament in the Nov. 14 vote. In an email interview with WPR, Jon Fraenkel, a professor of comparative politics at Victoria University of Wellington, discusses the results in the context of the Pacific island nation’s demographic fault lines and the regional rivalry between China and Fiji’s traditional allies, Australia and New Zealand.
World Politics Review: What were the key issues motivating voters in November’s election, and how did they help Bainimarama win a second term?
Jon Fraenkel: Issues were important in Fiji’s election, but they were shaped by the country’s ethnic and demographic context. Bainimarama’s FijiFirst party defended the government’s record in supposedly ridding Fiji of the ethnic tensions that provoked coups in 1987 and 2000. The main opposition Social and Democratic Liberal Party, or Sodelpa, emphasized indigenous rights, challenging the government’s abolition of the Great Council of Chiefs and its decision to change the official description of indigenous people from “Fijian” to “Taukei,” a Fijian word meaning “people of the land.” Ethnic Fijians who back Sodelpa fear being marginalized in their own land, like aborigines in Australia or Maori in New Zealand. They also want the Great Council of Chiefs—which once had the power to appoint Fiji’s president, vice president and a majority of the now-defunct Senate—restored as the country’s preeminent indigenous institution.
FijiFirst obtained 50.02 percent of the national vote, down from the 59 percent it obtained in 2014. Meanwhile, Sodelpa secured 39.9 percent, a substantial gain from the 28.2 percent it recorded four years ago. The formerly largely Fiji Indian-backed National Federation Party, or NFP, received 7.4 percent, with no other party crossing the 5 percent threshold.
FijiFirst received the support of the vast majority of Fiji Indians, who make up around one-third of the population, and a sizable share of the indigenous community, which comprises approximately 60 percent of the population. Sodelpa was backed mainly by indigenous Fijian voters. Given the indigenous majority, FijiFirst and Sodelpa battled for the Taukei swing vote, with FijiFirst sustaining its strong support in the islands’ western region from the 2014 election but losing ground in the critical areas around the capital, Suva.
Sodelpa leader Sitiveni Rabuka is an experienced politician and also a former military commander who previously served as prime minister from 1992 to 1999 and led a coup in 1987. He put up a more robust challenge to Bainimarama than his predecessor as party leader, Ro Teimumu Kepa, but he was attacked by the government for allowing the collapse of the National Bank of Fiji during the 1990s, for allegedly selling off native land and for provoking ethnic tensions. FijiFirst narrowly prevailed but it now has a weaker position in the country’s 51-member legislature, with 27 seats. Sodelpa holds 21 seats, while the NFP has three.
WPR: What role did misinformation via social media play in this election? To what extent did it taint the results?
Fraenkel: Those mesmerized by technology often imagine that social media plays a decisive role in election campaigns, and that it is constantly increasing in significance. Yet social media probably played a lesser role in Fiji’s 2018 election than it did in 2014. Many candidates had a Facebook presence. The country has an urban Twitterati, and the Fijian elections office developed a sophisticated mobile app that delivered election results as they came in. Most election campaigning, however, was through small “pocket meetings,” public rallies and village-based groups, where videos were often screened. Public meetings were sometimes live-fed via mobile phones on the internet. Internet communications are vital for expatriate Fiji citizens, who participated in the election in greater numbers than in 2014, but speeds are too slow and connections too poor for social media to play a major role in rural Fiji.
WPR: How is Bainimarama expected to navigate the regional rivalry between China and Fiji’s traditional allies, Australia and New Zealand?
Fraenkel: Fiji’s relations with China have expanded since the December 2006 coup, but contrary to the misinformation that is often spread by China hawks, the big spike in Chinese investment started earlier in 2006. China’s relationships with Pacific island countries have expanded across the region, particularly with Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu. Chinese firms now control Fiji’s gold mine, operate bauxite mining on its second-largest island of Vanua Levu and are heavily engaged in road-building and other construction projects across the country. The Australian government is worried about the security implications of expanding Chinese influence, but does not have an effective counter policy.
Australia and New Zealand fell out with Bainimarama when he overthrew the government in December 2006. Fijian military officers, ministers and senior civil servants were banned from entering Australia and New Zealand, although no trade sanctions or aid cuts were imposed. Both of those countries have since re-engaged with the Fijian government, but some animosities persist. In the past, Bainimarama has denounced Australian and New Zealand influence as member states and key funders of the premier regional gathering, the Pacific Islands Forum. He has started a rival Pacific Islands Development Forum, but its future is uncertain as relations improve with Australia and New Zealand.